到2023年,全球集装箱装卸量将有望新增2.6亿个标准箱
2018-9-17 14:46:45 来自:DS Research   已有 人参与 发表评论
 

德国独立航运业研究机构DS Research发布市场报告《集装箱码头项目计划》。报告称,目前全球计划在2023年前扩建的集装箱码头项目约有350个,这些项目的目标集装箱装卸总量将达2.7亿个标准箱,其中2/3的项目有望最终得以建成。

 

Developers are in general too optimistic regarding the expansion of existing facilities or the construction of greenfield sites. The scope and timing of projects is usually adjusted to market demand, resulting in projects getting downsized, postponed or cancelled.

 

对于现存设施的扩建和新项目的建设,开发商所持态度普遍过于乐观。而项目的规模和时间安排常常需要根据市场需求而调整,造成部分项目规模减小、推迟或取消。

 

“The purpose of project announcements is to attract interest from investors and potential customers. Therefore, what is announced usually exceeds what is actually built” says analyst Daniel Schaefer. “At the same time, we expect that about 2/3rd of the expansion projects included in our project pipeline will in fact get completed, with overall execution rates ranging from 40% for North Africa to about 70% for South East Asia and Oceania”

 

“这些项目公告的目的是为了吸引投资者和潜在客户的兴趣。因此,公告的内容往往言过其实”分析师Daniel Shaefer介绍,“同时,我们预计《项目计划》中所有新扩建项目中的2/3最终会得以建成,从北非地区40%的整体竣工率,到东南亚及大洋洲地区70%左右的竣工率不等。”

 

 

Due to a number of reasons, container handling capacity has increased at a relatively constant level of 40 to 50 million TEU per year, largely exceeding demand growth. Reportedly about 300 projects consisting of 185 million TEU new capacity have been built during the last 4 years, whereas global container throughput increased by only 63 million TEU. As trade tensions grow and terminal utilization rates are overall low, terminal operators tend to be more hesitant regarding new terminal investments.

 

在多种因素影响下,过去几年集装箱装卸量一直在按照每年4000-5000万标准箱的速度增长,大大超出了需求量的增长。据报道,过去4年共有总装卸能力达到1.85亿标准箱的大约300个项目竣工;而与此同时,全球集装箱实际吞吐量仅增长了6300万个标准箱。随着全球贸易形势趋于紧张,码头利用率整体偏低,各码头运营企业对于新增码头投资的态度越来越谨慎。

 

DS Research therefore expects container handling capacity to develop more in line with demand. Container port demand is forecasted to increase by 210 million TEU (4.3% CARG) until 2023, whereas container handling capacity is projected to increase by 260 million TEU (3.4% CAGR) in the same period of time.

 

因此,DS Research预计未来集装箱装卸能力的增长将更多与需求量看齐。预计从目前到2023年,集装箱码头需求量将增长2.1亿个标准箱(年复合增长率4.3%),而期集装箱装卸能力预计将增长2.6亿个标准箱(年复合增长率3.4%)。

 

 

Construction activities for specific regions and for terminal automation projects remain to be strong. Larger container terminal projects cluster at the US East Coast, the Mediterranean Sea, the Suez Canal, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca – moving away from Northern Europe and the Panama Canal. However, the majority of the listed projects are small or medium sized – about 75% of all projects scheduled for completion until 2023 include a capacity expansion of below 1 million TEU.

 

个别地区的建设力度以及码头自动化项目的势头依旧强劲。不过项目热点地区正在从北欧和巴拿马运河向其他区域转移,许多大型集装箱码头项目集中于美国东海岸、地中海沿岸、苏伊士运河、波斯湾地区以及马六甲海峡等地。不过,报告中的多数项目都是中小规模,预计在2023年前完成的所有项目中,大约75%的集装箱装卸能力都在100万个标准箱以下。

 

“We have seen a definite trend where many global concessions are being let on the basis as a multi-purpose terminal, that means containers plus dry bulk or breakbulk facilities,” added Schaefer “and an increasing interest of international operators in these kind of facilities as well as in inland services.“

 

“我们看到多功能码头,也就是集装箱加干散货或零担散货设施的特许经营模式在全球各地正得到越来越多的青睐,”Schaefer补充道,“国际运营商对此类设施以及内陆运输服务的兴趣正在增长。”

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