【BIMCO干散货航运】年初强劲,年末复苏缓慢
2021-3-17 15:01:25 来自:BIMCO上海   已有 人参与 发表评论

  DRY BULK SHIPPING: STRONG START TO YEAR ENDS AS SLOW RECOVERY AWAITS

  Overview

  概述

  After an unusually strong start to the year, seasonality has caught up with the dry bulk market. Coupled with a slow recovery in global economic activity, it looks set to be another challenging year.

  在经历了今年异常强劲的开局之后,干散货市场开始受到季节性因素的影响。再加上全球经济缓慢复苏,今年看来又将是充满挑战的一年。

  Demand drivers and freight rates

  需求驱动及运费

  The dry bulk industry has enjoyed an unseasonably robust start to 2021. Average earnings in January were much higher than in recent years, because the usual seasonal slump in cargoes was delayed. However, at the start of February, the Capesize market saw average earnings fall steeply, from around USD 25,500 per day to just USD 12,057 per day on 8 February. After this, they seemed to turn a corner and rose to USD 15,856 per day on 17 February, still well below their break-even level.

  2021年开局干散货行业表现异常强劲。由于货运量的传统季节性下滑延迟,1月份的平均收入比近几年同期要高得多。然而,在2月初,好望角型船市场的平均收益急剧下降,从大约每日25,500美元下降到2月8日的12,057美元。在此之后,价格开始迎来转机,并在2月17日上升到15,856美元,仍然未达到收支平衡。

  The strong January was in part a result of higher-than-usual demand for iron ore. This led to increased exports and raised prices, from which exporters were keen to profit. These rose to around USD 170 per tonne, their highest level since 2011. Though they remain high, prices slipped back from their mid-January peak at the start of February.

  1月份的强劲表现,部分原因是对铁矿石的需求高于正常水平。这导致出口增加,价格上涨,而出口商渴望从中获利。这一价格升至每吨170美元左右,达到2011年以来的最高水平。尽管仍处于高位,但2月初的价格已从1月中旬的峰值开始回落。

  Unlike Capesize ships, earnings for Panamax through to Handysize ships continued to grow in February, with some rising to multi-year highs: Panamax earnings on 17 February stood at USD 22,659 per day, their best since September 2010, and more than double what they need to break even (around USD 10,200 per day); Handysize (38,000 DWT) earnings are at their highest levels in more than a decade, at USD 14,406 per day; and, at more than USD 14,000 per day, Supramax earnings are at their highest levels since Q4 2019.

  与海岬型船不同,从巴拿马型船到灵便型船的收益在2月份持续增长,部分的收益达到了多年来的高点:巴拿马型船2月17日的收益达22,659美元,为2010年9月以来的最高水平,是实现盈亏平衡所需的两倍多(约每日10,200美元);灵便型船(38,000 DWT)的收益达到了十多年来的最高水平,为每日14,406美元;此外,超大灵便型船的收益达到了自2019年第四季度以来的最高水平,每日超过14,000美元。

  Panamax and Supramax ships have found support in agricultural exports in recent months. US soya bean exports had a very strong start to their season; exports in the first four months (September to December) reached a record high of 39.6 million tonnes, of which almost 94% was transported as dry bulk, and the last 6.3% in containers. This follows strong Brazilian soya bean exports in 2020, up by 12%, compared with 2019, at 83m tonnes

  巴拿马型和超大灵便型船最近几个月在农产品出口方面得到了运力保证。美国大豆出口开局强劲;前四个月(9月至12月)的出口达到创纪录的3,960万吨,其中约94%以干散货运输,剩下的6.3%以集装箱运输。在此之前,2020年巴西大豆出口强劲,比2019年增长12%,达到8,300万吨。

  Total imports by China from these two countries hit a record high of 95.3 million tonnes in 2020 – the equivalent of 1,271 Panamax loads (75,000 tonnes), an increase of 197 loads from 2019. Furthermore, the higher US exports to China means the ratio between Brazilian and US soya bean exports to China has returned to pre-trade war levels. For every tonne of soya beans the US exported to China this year, Brazil exported 1.7, the same as in 2017. In 2018, at the height of the trade war, this ratio was 1:8.3.

  2020年,中国从这两个国家的进口总量达到了创纪录的9,530万吨,相当于1,271艘巴拿马型船的装载量(载重吨75,000吨),比2019年增加了197艘(的装载量)。此外,美国对华出口上升,意味着巴西与美国对华大豆出口之比已恢复到贸易战前的水平。今年,美国每出口中国一吨大豆,巴西出口1.7吨,与2017年相同。2018年,在贸易战最激烈的时候,这一比例高达1:8.3。

  In terms of tonne mile demand, average sailing distances for soya beans from Brazil to China are longer than those from the US, though both provide a strong tonne mile boost.

  就吨英里需求而言,尽管这两个国家都提供了强劲的吨英里需求,从巴西到中国的大豆平均航行距离比从美国到中国的要长。

  Growth in Chinese demand for soya beans was largely driven by the growth in the nation’s pig herd which, after the mass culling of animals to prevent the spread of the African swine fever, has almost returned to normal levels.

  中国对大豆需求的增长在很大程度上是由中国猪禽规模的增长推动的。在为防止非洲猪瘟的蔓延而大规模扑杀生猪后,中国猪禽规模几乎恢复到正常水平。

  Given the strong seasonality of soya bean exports, a more balanced ratio means that demand for the Panamax and Supramax ships that cater to this trade have their demand spread more evenly throughout the year; as Brazilian cargoes start to drop off in August, the new US export season starts, lasting until the middle of Q1 when Brazilian exports once again pick up.

  由于大豆出口具有很强的季节性,更均衡的比例意味着对巴拿马型和超大灵便型船的需求在全年分布更均;随着巴西8月份货物出口开始下降,美国新的出口季节开始了,并将持续到第一季度中期,届时巴西出口将再次回升。

  Coarse grains also provided support to the dry bulk market, with exports from the US, Brazil and Argentina growing 6.1% in 2020. The US increased the most, exporting 47.6m tonnes, a rise of 14.8m from 2019. On the other hand, wheat exports from these three countries fell by 4.6%, a loss of 1.7m tonnes, but this is more than made up for by the growth in coarse grain and soya bean exports.

  粗粮也支撑了干散货市场的运力,美国、巴西和阿根廷的出口在2020年增长了6.1%。美国出口量增加最多,出口达4,760万吨,比2019年增加了1,480万吨。另一方面,这三个国家的小麦出口下降了4.6%,损失了170万吨,但这由粗粮和大豆出口的增长充分弥补。

  The red-hot container market has also brought some positives for dry bulk shipping. Some commodities often transported in containers are temporarily being transported as bulk cargoes, as boxes are becoming hard to secure and expensive.

  火热的集装箱市场也为干散货航运带来利好。由于集装箱一箱难求、价格昂贵,一些经常用集装箱运输的商品暂时作为散货运输。

  After a strong 2020, the new Brazilian export season, which runs from February to January, is upon us. Because of harvesting delays, it has started more slowly than last year and BIMCO expects exports to fall slightly.

  在强劲的2020年之后,从2月到1月的巴西新出口季节即将到来。由于收成延迟,新出口季节较去年来得更慢,BIMCO预计出口将略有下降。

  While tensions between the US and China have eased from the height of the trade war, a new spat between China and Australia is now affecting dry bulk shipping. Though Australian iron ore exports remain unchallenged, coal trade between the two countries has seen severe disruption. In 2020, total Australian coal exports fell by 94 million tonnes (-6.1%) from 2019, lowered by the new Chinese import policy and the pandemic, which hurt global coal demand. Exports of thermal and coking coal registered similar drops: down 6.5% and 5.7%, respectively.

  尽管美国和中国之间的紧张关系相比贸易战最激烈的时候有所缓解,但中国和澳大利亚之间的新矛盾正影响着干散货航运。虽然澳大利亚铁矿石出口尚未受到挑战,但两国间的煤炭贸易已严重中断。2020年,由于中国的新进口政策和疫情对全球煤炭需求的影响,澳大利亚煤炭出口总量比2019年下降了9,400万吨(同比下降6.1%)。热能煤和焦煤出口也出现了类似的下降,分别下降6.5%和5.7%。

  So how about exports to China? In the first half of the year they were strong, as its demand recovered much faster than that of the rest of the world. In fact, before import restrictions were put in place, 31.1% of Australian coking coal and 24.3% of steam coal was going to China. However, these figures nosedived in the second half of the year, down to 14.0% and 9.2%, respectively.

  那么对中国的出口如何?2020年上半年,由于中国的需求复苏速度远远快于世界其他地区,中国进口表现强劲。事实上,在进口限制措施实施之前,31.1%的澳大利亚焦煤和24.3%的动力煤销往中国。然而,这一数据在下半年大幅跳水,分别降至14.0%和9.2%。

  India benefited from the drop in China’s share to take 31.6% of Australian coking coal exports in the second half of the year, rising from 20.2% in the first half. No single country saw similar gains in market share when it came to thermal coal, although Japan cemented its top spot, taking 38.2% of Australian exports (from a 35.3% share in H1 2020).

  2020年下半年,中国占据澳大利亚的焦煤出口份额下降,印度从中获利,份额相较上半年的20.2%有所上升。尽管日本仍居首位,但没有一个国家的市场份额达到这样的增长,占澳大利亚出口份额的38.2%(上半年占35.3%)。

  What happened in 2020 meant that, after Q1, the rest of the year saw quarter-on-quarter drops in total Australian coal exports. In Q2, the growth in Chinese imports (up 4 million tonnes), was not enough to make up for losses in the rest of the world. Then, as import restrictions were put in place in Q3 and Q4, the fall in exports to China was larger than the slowly growing demand in the rest of the world. As the distances between Australia and the world’s largest coal importers are similar, the drops in tonne-mile demand have been close to those in tonnes.

  2020年发生的事情意味着,第一季度之后,澳大利亚煤炭出口总额环比下降。第二季度,中国进口的增长(增加了400万吨)不足以弥补世界其他地区的损失。随着第三季度和第四季度进口限制措施的实施,中国的进口量下滑超过世界其他地区缓慢的增长需求。由于澳大利亚与世界各大煤炭进口国之间的距离相似,每吨英里需求的降幅与每吨需求降幅相近。

  Fleet news

  船队新闻

  BIMCO expects growth in the dry bulk fleet in 2021 to be the lowest for many years, at around 2%. Lower growth will be as a result of fewer new deliveries; some 27m DWT are expected to arrive – around half of the 48.9m DWT delivered in 2020. Last year, the dry bulk fleet grew by 3.8%. The falling number of deliveries reflects the lower orderbook which, at 51.4m DWT, is almost half that at the start of 2019.

  BIMCO预计,2021年干散货船队的增长率将为多年来最低,约为2%。增长放缓将是新交付量减少的结果;预计将有2,700万载重吨投入运营,占2020年交付总量的一半左右,即4,890万载重吨。去年,干散货船队增长了3.8%。交付数量的下降反映了订单量的下降,订单量为5,140万吨,几乎是2019年同期的一半。

  BIMCO expects 9m DWT to be demolished this year, down from 15m DWT in 2020. So far this year, 1.7m DWT have been scrapped. This includes four Capesize ships, three of which were over the ages of 25, including two that were part of the fleet of converted Very Large Ore Carrier (VLOC)s. The renewal of this VLOC fleet is now more or less complete, with new purpose-built ships having been delivered in time to replace the old converted ones.

  BIMCO预计今年运力将拆解900万载重吨,低于2020年的1,500万载重吨。今年到目前为止,已经拆解了170万吨载重吨。其中包括四艘好望角型船,其中三艘船龄超过25岁,其中两艘是改装的超大型矿砂船(VLOC)的一部分。VLOC船队的迭代现在几乎已经完成,新的专用船只已经及时交付,以替代旧的改装船只。

  For demolition to see a meaningful rise, the scrap value of a ship must be higher than its secondhand value. When owners look to get rid of a vessel, they will choose the most profitable option, regardless of the ship’s age. Ultimately, as long as the resale price for a given ship exceeds its scrap value, it will not be sent for demolition. The poor outlook for the sector means secondhand prices are falling, potentially stirring up demolition activity. Given the current market conditions, the value of Capesize ships aged 16 or older are equal to their scrap values.

  要想船舶的拆解运力相应增长,其报废价值必须高于其二手价值。当船东不想再拥有船时,无论船龄,他们会做最有利的选择。最终,只要船舶的二手价格超过其报废价值,船东不会选择拆船。航运行业前景不佳意味着,二手价格正在下跌,这可能会引发拆船行为。根据目前的市场状况,16年以上好望角型船舶的价值等于其报废价值。

  Outlook

  展望

  After the strong start to the year, cargoes and tonne-mile demand fell in February, as the Chinese Lunar New Year – despite being celebrated in a different way this year because of the pandemic – lowered economic activity in China. Chinese steel prices fell from their late December peak though, at USD 4,500 per tonne of 20mm steel plate, they are still above the average levels of recent years.

  在今年强劲开局之后,2月份的货运量和吨位英里需求出现下降,原因是中国新年减少了中国的经济活动(虽然今年由于疫情原因,春节的庆祝方式有所不同)。尽管中国钢材价格从去年12月下旬的高点下跌,达到20mm钢板每吨4,500美元,但仍高于近年来的平均水平。

  Despite the arrival of the Lunar New Year, the number of spot iron ore cargoes bound for China being offered to the market remained resilient. In the first week of February, there were 10 spot cargoes from Australia and three from Brazil, on a par with levels since the start of the year (source: Commodore). So far, Australian iron ore exports to China remain unaffected by rising trade tensions. Currently, China has little alternative to iron ore but, in the longer term, it may have its sights set on lowering these imports as well. In 2020, Chinese iron ore imports reached a record high of 1.2 billion tonnes, up 9.5% from 2019.

  尽管受中国新年影响,但运往中国的铁矿石现货数量仍保持弹性。在2月的第一周,有10批来自澳大利亚的现货和3批来自巴西的现货,与年初以来的水平持平(来源:Commodore)。到目前为止,澳大利亚对中国铁矿石的出口仍未受到日益紧张的贸易关系的影响。目前来看,中国在铁矿石进口方面几乎别无选择,但从长远来看,中国可能也会着眼于降低铁矿石进口。2020年,中国铁矿石进口量达到创纪录的12亿吨,比2019年增长9.5%。

  Unlike coal, which China can source from nearby destinations such as Indonesia, Russia and Mongolia, and harming seaborne demand, when it comes to iron ore, other significant sources are harder to find. In the longer term, we could see higher imports from Africa and Brazil, which would boost tonne-mile demand. One of these new sources is the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, which has reserves of more than 2 billion tonnes. Though this will add considerable tonne-mile demand, it is unlikely to affect the dry bulk market because the mine will have a ‘conveyor belt’ of purpose-built and long-term chartered VLOCs to fulfil its transport needs.

  中国可以从印尼、俄罗斯和蒙古等邻近地区进口煤炭,这会降低海运需求。但铁矿石与煤炭不同,其他重要进口源更难找到。长期来看,我们可能会看到来自非洲和巴西的铁矿石进口增加,这将提高吨英里的需求。这些新进口源之一是几内亚的西芒杜铁矿,其储量超过20亿吨。尽管这将增加相当大的吨位英里需求,但几乎不可能影响干散货市场,因为该矿将有一条“传送带”,由专门建造和长期租用的超大型铁矿船来满足其运输需求。

  Another option for the Chinese would be to increase their use of scrap steel, lowering demand for imported iron ore and, by extension, shipping. This has the added benefit of reducing emissions, as China starts on its path towards carbon neutrality by 2060.

  中国的另一个选择是增加废钢的使用,减少铁矿石的进口需求,进而减少航运需求。随着中国踏上“2060年实现碳中和”目标的道路,这将带来了减少碳排放的额外收益。

  After a year of strong growth in Chinese imports, its government’s aim of moving towards a more consumer-driven economy could threaten the continuation of 2020’s high growth in imports of dry bulk goods, which was aided by infrastructure and industry-supporting stimulus measures.

  在经历了一年的进口强劲增长后,中国政府转向消费驱动型的经济目标。2020年里,得益于基础设施和产业扶持刺激措施的干散货进口的高增长可能会受到威胁。

  Stimulus packages in the rest of the world have focused more on securing the demand side of the economy – policies that benefit container shipping more than dry bulk. With the crisis still continuing and governments still focused on supporting individual consumers, infrastructure-heavy stimulus projects in many countries still appear a long way off, with no guarantee that they will materialise, and therefore cannot be counted on to provide the fuel for a dry bulk recovery.

  世界其它地区的刺激政策更多地关注于确保经济的需求面——这些政策更利好集装箱航运,而非干散货。由于危机仍在继续,各国政府仍专注于支持个体消费者,在许多国家,以基础设施为主的刺激项目似乎还有很长的路要走,由于无法保证它们会成为现实,因此不能指望它们拉动干散货市场复苏。

  Instead, any recovery will be slow and will vary by sector. Demands will increase at different paces, which leaves dry bulk shipping facing another tough year, despite the strong start in the opening months. Overcapacity could once again hamper shipowners’ and operators’ ability to make a profit, especially as currently low bunker prices, which supported profits in 2020, are rising again.

  相反,任何复苏都将是缓慢的并且会因行业而异。尽管干散货航运在前几个月表现强劲,但需求将以不同的速度增长,这将使干散货航运面临又一个艰难的一年。产能过剩可能会再次阻碍船东和船舶经营人盈利,尤其是在当前较低的燃油价格再次上涨的情况下(燃油价格曾在2020年支撑了部分利润)。

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